Todays chanakya exit poll lok sabha speaker
Bengal has proved to be a tricky election to predict this time with the BJP and the TMC continuing to be strong in certain regions. Several factors were at play in the high-voltage battleground of Bengal: the voter being largely silent on whom it will vote for, evaporation of the Third Front, and incidents like Sitalkuchi in Phase-4 that could have united the Muslim vote. The second wave of Covid during the last two phases of polls may have impacted urban Kolkata seats too. This also reflected in the exit polls of leading agencies.
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Content:
- Karnataka LIVE: Kumaraswamy wins trust vote after BJP MLAs walk out
- Why There Is A Problem With Opinion Polls In India
- Modi-Shah Leave BJP Defenceless In Karnataka - By Yashwant Sinha
- Naveen Patnaik's record fourth straight win as Odisha CM turns state politics into a one-horse race
- Exit polls not perfect for Lok Sabha elections
- Bihar results: Exit poll prediction goes totally wrong, Chanakya's credibility under the docks
- 2014 Indian general election
- WEST BENGAL ASSEMBLY EXIT POLL RESULTS
- Advantage Tejashwi Yadav all the way, says India Today-Axis Bihar election exit poll
Karnataka LIVE: Kumaraswamy wins trust vote after BJP MLAs walk out
Tanvi Madan , director of the Brookings India Project , which sponsored the event, moderated the panel discussion with India experts from other think tanks.
First, this next government will replace the longest-serving Indian government since Third, it will, unusually for India, be led by an individual who has been the chief minister of a state for nearly a dozen years. And finally, as Mr. Lindsay , and Pietro S. Nivola Vaishnav explained the significance:. And this quite literally redraws the political map. Sadanand Dhume of the American Enterprise Institute spoke about the political lessons of the outcome.
Not just in terms of social groups … but also in terms of region, you have this rightward tilt and you have the BJP emerging at least for now as the natural party of governance in India. Of course it remains to be seen how many of these gains are long lasting and how many are temporary … but for now this is really quite dramatic. BJP and its allies will hold about 26 percent of seats in the upper house, Rossow said, while Congress and its allies, or at least anti-BJP parties, will hold 38 percent of seats.
On fiscal constraints, Rossow said that Modi, as chief minister of Gujarat, was known to give big tax breaks to companies that chose to locate in his state.
Finally, Rossow described potential constraints on the BJP from inside the party, especially those concerning local content rules for manufacturing. Get a full video archive plus audio of the event here.
The event was the final in a series of Brookings India Project events on the national elections in India, including:. And quite an exciting year. It culminated in an election where over five weeks, million Indians—66 percent of the electorate—turned out to vote. And what we got at the end of it is a historic result. Related Books. Stalemate By Sarah A. Mann , and Trevor Potter. So we see the BJP-led NDA going from seats to , which is just a mind-boggling figure for those of you who follow Indian politics.
While the UPA goes down to just 60 seats which is just a devastating blow that few if any could have predicted. And then the remaining balance going to a wide variety of regional players. In many ways the BJP succeeded in making this a referendum not just on the not just on the misgovernance of Manmohan Singh, but on Narendra Modi.
You are not going to see elections in India fought in the old way again. This has been extremely successful for the BJP. Not projecting a presidential candidate and in fact having a weak candidate in the face of Rahul Gandhi has proved catastrophic for the Congress. I think this is a turning point in Indian politics in his regard, at least in post coalition era. Even when the BJP won more seats than the Congress in , , and , it never won more votes.
For the first time, the BJP has won more votes than the Congress. Only about 1 in 5 chose Congress. If you factor in votes for the NDA, which were effectively for the BJP and Modi as prime minister, it comes to a little bit less than 40 percent of national vote, which is quite staggering.
What does this mean for the Congress Party and Nehru-Gandhi family? Congress has in fact bounced back from severe defeats in the past, none of these defeats has been remotely this severe and never before has there been such a serious question mark over the quality of the leadership of the Congress party. I think you are going to see very, very interesting debates on how far [Modi] can move on economic policy in particular. Because now he has a mandate. And the general rule of thumb was that if the BJP had fallen short, or if the NDA had fallen short, we could have expected a more cautious approach.
Even if he supports doing that, there is a large group within his own party that that kind of plays to their base interests. He has called for strong patriotic government at the center.
He has drawn attention to the problems of stagnancy. We have to put our own house in order so the world is attracted to us. In fact he acknowledges in some ways the realities of globalization.
He said in response to one question, he said, we are not living in the 18th or 19th centuries, but in the 21st century. The last five years have been lackluster by any measure on the foreign policy front with the possible exception of the relationship with Japan.
And so I think a useful thing to do is see this as an opportunity, both in this town and in other capitals, for a new bargain with India. TechTank The role of technology and cash transfers in Indian elections during the pandemic Shamika Ravi. Play Audio. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.
Why There Is A Problem With Opinion Polls In India
Voters queued up to cast their ballots for Bihar Assembly elections at a polling station in Masaurhi. According to India Today-Axis My India exit polls, the Mahagathbandhan has been projected to win a comfortable majority. Here are the projected numbers. These are not the real results.
Modi-Shah Leave BJP Defenceless In Karnataka - By Yashwant Sinha
One of the biggest problems pollsters have is that people often lie in India. Opinion polls are uncertain about who is going to win the Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Out of nine opinion polls published on Friday , eight said Congress would win Rajasthan and similarly the TRS is expected to win in Telangana. I was surprised to see that there was uncertainty over MP and Chhattisgarh. In fact the average of the polls suggests that the Bharatiya Janata Party will lose its majority in both Chhattisgarh and MP. These two states have looked like they are following the Gujarat model. These are all two-party states where the Congress seemed to be permanently in the opposition. If the opinion polls are right, this could be ending on Tuesday.
Naveen Patnaik's record fourth straight win as Odisha CM turns state politics into a one-horse race
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Exit polls not perfect for Lok Sabha elections
Voters lined up to vote for the Bihar state legislative elections at the Masauri polling place. Meanwhile, the BJP appeared to be the party with the second highest voting share and seats, according to the first predictions from a Times Now C-Voter survey. Participating in the Secular Star Campaign. Democratic front. Exit poll forecasts will begin on the television channel shortly after the vote ends at 6 pm on Saturday night.
Bihar results: Exit poll prediction goes totally wrong, Chanakya's credibility under the docks
India TV is getting you the most accurate exit polls on the biggest election - Lok Sabha Election The sample for the survey was drawn using a multi stage Stratified Random Sampling Technique. The survey team visited the randomly selected polling station going deep into by-lanes and meeting people from all walks of life. A quantitative survey using a structured questionnaire was administered randomly to men and women from section A and section B households, in the age group of 18 to The results are subject to a margin of error 2.
2014 Indian general election
Lok Sabha TV is the first parliamentary channel of India. It is dedicated to the Lower House of the Parliament. Committed towards its role as a Public Broadcaster, the channel produces and showcases programmes revolving around different facets of democracy.
WEST BENGAL ASSEMBLY EXIT POLL RESULTS
Four states — Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim — have also voted for to choose their state assemblies along with the Lok Sabha elections Telugu Desam Party will come second in the state. Arunachal Pradesh has two parliamentary constituencies and 60 Assembly seats. The state went to polls on April 11 to decide the fate of candidates. Congress to draw a nil in the state.
Advantage Tejashwi Yadav all the way, says India Today-Axis Bihar election exit poll
Manmohan Singh INC. Narendra Modi BJP. General elections were held in India in nine phases from 7 April to 12 May to elect the members of the 16th Lok Sabha. Around The results were declared on 16 May, 15 days before the 15th Lok Sabha completed its constitutional mandate on 31 May
The political arm of the consumer research agency RNB Research, Today's Chanakya predictions have come true, barely five months after prophetic psephology during the Delhi election last December. A company spokesperson told media they ensure sampling of polls is done as per caste and religious configuration of a constituency. No community that can impact poll result is left out and we use multiple question methods to catch the voter's preference," the spokesperson told the media. In December , when most exit polls said Arvind Kejriwal was a media creation without much impact on voters, Today's Chanakya gave him 31 seats and the BJP
Are there any analogs?
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Very simply in words, but in deeds, a lot does not correspond, everything is not so rosy!